At the recent climate talks in Bonn in June, Costa Rican negotiator Felipe de Leon Denegri told Climate Home News: ”Unlike almost everything else in the UN climate negotiations, Article 6 has the potential to cause truly active damage.” He added that there is a ”pretty significant” risk of introducing loopholes that undermine the agreement`s ambitions. In Katowice, the proceeds of the draft Article 6.2 rules have not been resolved, suggesting that this was one of the most controversial issues in the negotiations. Since then, a longer list of options has been reintroduced in the most recent text. Article 6.8 provides for a third option for international cooperation, which is the non-market-based approach. This was not the focal point of the COP25 negotiations, but how these non-market-based approaches should work will be determined in the coming years by the development of a ”framework for non-market-based approaches”. The level of revenue adjustment is an important political issue in the Article 6 negotiations, particularly for vulnerable small island developing states. These countries also insist that a fraction of Article 6.4 appropriations be automatically abolished in order to guarantee OMGE. The last unresolved element of the Paris ”Regulatory Framework” agreement, the Article 6 negotiations have symbolic significance for the general regime, which is expected to enter into force in early 2020. Under the Paris Agreement, some of the revenue from the markets must be made available to help developing countries adapt to the effects of climate change. Whether this applies only to the centralized MDS market or to all trade, including bilateral agreements, has not yet been agreed.
Article 6 is one of the least accessible and most complex concepts of the global agreement. This complexity was one of the main reasons why Article 6 was adopted only on the last morning of the Paris negotiations in 2015 and was not resolved during last year`s climate talks in Katowice. Putting these rules in order is essential to combating climate change: according to their structure, Article 6 could help the world avoid dangerous levels of global warming or deter countries from making significant emission reductions. The integrity of the Paris Agreement and the countries` climate commitments are on hold. The question of how to ensure that a ”share of revenue” from trade is used to support adaptation in vulnerable countries was a sensitive point in the Article 6 negotiations. This is what Article 6.6 says, which says the COP: if there is no agreement by the end of COP25, the subject will be transferred to COP26 in Glasgow in December 2020, so that the Uk will pay attention to the diplomatic advance to get it over the line. Last December, an agreement was close to reaching an agreement in Katowice, Poland. But since then, the assumption has grown rather than narrowed, after analyzing the number of brackets (points of disagreement) in the Carbon Brief negotiating text.
In Katowice, the rest of the Paris rules were negotiated and the countries insisted that everything would be agreed. Now that Article 6 has been isolated, that pressure has dissipated. Update 23.12.2019: The COP25 climate summit in Madrid in December 2019 did not allow negotiators to agree on the Rules of Article 6, despite considerable progress.